Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.571121 2.069771 2.743821 3.745687 5.240201 7.461402 1.116456e+01
2025-01-19 0.950042 1.405097 2.121315 3.395583 5.761960 10.341486 2.104017e+01
2025-01-26 0.672542 1.095673 1.855100 3.449207 7.128303 16.628844 5.049896e+01
2025-02-02 0.525080 0.935504 1.770424 3.842713 9.912632 32.229376 1.805014e+02
2025-02-09 0.428687 0.829467 1.747866 4.447703 14.728787 73.784163 1.190757e+03
2025-02-16 0.339657 0.701678 1.615886 4.726123 19.892629 162.602753 1.707287e+04
2025-02-23 0.262097 0.568367 1.400854 4.581321 23.761043 321.763578 2.588576e+06
2025-03-02 0.202637 0.456263 1.186867 4.256195 26.555361 609.700701 NaN
2025-03-09 0.171035 0.403576 1.124626 4.557932 37.075094 2197.376299 NaN
2025-03-16 0.145286 0.357129 1.058476 4.809764 51.326462 11739.336414 NaN
2025-03-23 0.126846 0.324806 1.025399 5.265072 77.334872 264624.206000 NaN
2025-03-30 0.111278 0.295499 0.988098 5.698213 117.254397 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.092677 0.251908 0.874537 5.454433 144.024630 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.076642 0.211721 0.754658 4.979666 159.303102 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.066981 0.189972 0.707231 5.133909 233.614730 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.061053 0.179182 0.706551 5.847620 462.457301 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.056639 0.172335 0.723087 6.941556 1165.043236 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.051145 0.159551 0.699394 7.488091 2466.492447 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.045002 0.142319 0.639190 7.283009 3754.230505 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.039291 0.125251 0.570605 6.747495 4671.410973 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.036157 0.117773 0.557832 7.317624 13362.362294 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.033245 0.110344 0.540969 7.802248 45620.897988 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.031023 0.105197 0.536617 8.664563 396486.901686 NaN NaN